Iran

Yeah... I'm gonna dive right in! The truth of the matter is, tensions are mounting in the Strait of Hormuz. For those of you who slept through Geography in High School, it's the gateway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman (right there between the UAE, Oman and Iran). It is essentially a gateway in and out of the Middle East, especially if you intend to import or export oil and/ or natural gas. That's all you need to know, right?

Okay, so now you know where it is, you know why it's important and now, here's what's going on:

In the past couple of weeks, Iran has shown some of it's military aggression. Iran tested it's might, if you will, by performing military exercises in the Strait and the Gulf of Oman to show that it can deal with U.S. warships should the need arise. They even launched a long range weapon during the mission. More recently, Iran warned the U.S. not to return a warship to the Persian Gulf.

Now, I'd hate to be one of those people who is contemplating what it would mean if we went to war with Iran, but I can't help myself, so I'm gonna throw some stuff around.

While many still insist that Iran does not have nuclear weapons, I would argue that they aren't that hard to get a hold of. (Those of you who saw Rachael Maddow's Day of Destruction, you know that at any given moment, nuclear weapons could become compromised and can fall into the wrong hands; those of you who didn't see it, you may want to look for it). And, let's face it, Iran has been dancing around this technology for years. They will work toward it and they will find it, especially if they enter a war with the U.S. If they find it, they will not hesitate to use it.

So, what's the big deal? We have nukes, too right? (Duh, you don't want someone who will use that technology to be in a war with you... If you think you do, google Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it might change your mind). The truth of the matter is, there are other factors to consider.

At any given moment, Iran could have as many as 1 million active military personnel (between the Armed Forces, Army, Navy and Air Force). I should mention the following: Iran has a population of over 77 million people. About 70% of them are between the ages of 15 and 65, meaning that it is likely that they could be called upon to assist. This is not to be naive enough to assume that all of those people will be called upon, but just to say that they are there. 

I know what you're thinking: In the U.S., we can beat those numbers and in a way, you're right. According to the 2010 Census, the U.S. has an estimated 308 million residents.

Let's assume for 5 seconds that someone would be bold enough to reinstate a draft (which would be political suicide, so it's likely to never happen, but humor me). I would argue 37% would be ruled out of a draft because of age (under 18 and over 65 excluded) and 50% would be ruled out because of gender (assuming the draft would exclude women, I'm not assuming for any other reason than precedent).While the U.S.have possibly over 1.5 million active military personnel and another 1 million or so on reserve, those forces are currently detained in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq (yes, still in Iraq), plus a host of other places that most people aren't even thinking about.

History tells us you can't fight a multiple front war. If you would like to argue against that, you should ask Hitler and Napoleon how it worked for them. The truth of the matter is that being militaristic for the simple sake of walking tall and carrying a big stick usually doesn't help when you're surrounded.

What will happen with Iran? Who knows? I do know that it's something to watch and the clock appears to be going closer to midnight.

More to come on Iran, you can bet on it.